Tomato Prices in 2025 Could Rise Up to 50% (What’s Next?)

The Tomato Suspension Agreement between the U.S. and Mexico just ended after nearly 30 years. This change could make tomatoes cost up to 50% more at the store, especially during winter months. 

Whether you’re someone who loves growing tomatoes, or just enjoys eating them, it’s helpful to know how this affects your wallet and garden.

How This Hits Your Wallet

Mexico supplies about 70% of all the fresh tomatoes you eat in the U.S. When something affects that big of a chunk of our tomato supply, you'll likely feel it in your grocery budget.

Experts are predicting that tomato prices could jump up to 50%, according to a 2023 study by Arizona State University, especially during winter months when Florida and other U.S. states aren't producing as much. That means your winter salads, pasta sauces, and sandwich tomatoes could all cost more.

“The Tomato Suspension Agreement shows how fast trade policies can disrupt our food supply,” says Kelly Funk, CEO of Park Seed. “Home gardening is still one of the best ways to avoid rising costs and uncertainty.”

Which Tomato Foods and Products Could Get More Expensive?

The ripple effects from higher tomato costs could spread beyond just fresh tomatoes in the produce section. Here's what you might notice costing more at the store:

• Fresh Products: Grape tomatoes, cherry tomatoes, Roma tomatoes, beefsteak tomatoes, heirloom varieties, organic tomatoes

• Processed Foods: Tomato sauce, tomato paste, crushed tomatoes, diced tomatoes, tomato juice, marinara sauce

• Restaurant and Prepared Foods: Salsa, pizza sauce, BBQ sauce, ketchup, pasta dishes, Mexican food, Italian food

• Frozen and Packaged Items: Frozen pizza, pasta sauce packets, soup mixes, frozen vegetables with tomatoes

The impact won't be immediate across all these products, but as food companies adjust to higher tomato costs, it is likely that you’ll see gradual price increases throughout the grocery store over the coming months.

Who's Happy and Who's Not

Like any big trade change, there are multiple sides. Florida growers are cheering, saying U.S. farmers are finally being protected. Mexican growers call the move unfair and say it damages trade between the two countries. 

Even the U.S. Chamber of Commerce isn’t thrilled. They wanted to fix the old deal instead of scrapping it, worried about the hit to consumers and businesses.

What's Next

This tomato story isn’t finished. There’s still a chance the U.S. and Mexico could hammer out a new agreement. And the September 30 vote could change the rules again, either keeping, adjusting, or even removing the duties.

In the meantime, grocery stores and restaurants are figuring out how to deal with higher costs, and you’ll probably see the difference next time you shop.

Are Tomato Seeds Going to Become More Expensive?

While fresh tomato prices are expected to rise significantly, tomato seeds might see some price increases too, but likely smaller ones. Additionally, increased demand for home gardening supplies often leads to modest price bumps. 

However, even if seed prices do go up slightly, growing your own tomatoes will still save you money compared to buying expensive fresh tomatoes at the store.

Consider starting a bigger tomato garden next season, or maybe try growing tomatoes indoors during winter months (using a greenhouse or Bio Dome). You could also look into preserving techniques like canning or freezing to make your summer harvest last longer.

If you're not ready to grow your own, keep an eye on local farmers markets. American-grown tomatoes might become more competitively priced compared to the now-more-expensive Mexican imports.

How You Can Save on Tomatoes

With grocery store tomato prices likely going up, you have a few options to keep your costs under control. Home gardening is one of the most popular ways to save money and enjoy fresher, better-tasting produce at the same time.

How Much Can You Save?

One healthy tomato plant can produce 10–15 pounds of fruit in a season. If store prices climb to $4–6 per pound, that adds up to $40–90 worth of tomatoes from a single plant, and you only need to spend a few dollars on seeds or seedlings.

Why Grow Your Own?

Tomatoes you grow yourself usually taste better than store-bought. Grocery tomatoes are often picked before they’re ripe so they can survive shipping. Vine-ripened tomatoes from your own garden have a sweeter, more complex flavor.

You’ll also get access to more variety. Stores usually sell just a handful of common types, while gardeners can grow heirlooms, colorful specialty tomatoes, and other unique kinds you won’t find at the supermarket.

Getting Started

You can start growing tomatoes almost any time of year, depending on your climate. Some fast-growing varieties like Early Girl are ready to harvest in under 60 days. You can plant them outside in summer or even start seeds indoors during colder months.

Even if you don’t have much space, a few container plants on a porch or balcony can produce a surprising amount of fruit. Tomatoes are also fairly easy to grow, even for beginners.

Other Tips to Save Money

• Shop at local farmers’ markets, where prices may be more stable than grocery store chains.

• Watch for sales or discounts on canned and frozen tomato products before prices go up.

• Consider preserving summer tomatoes by canning or freezing to use later.

The trade situation shows how unpredictable food prices can be. Growing some of your own produce (whether it’s tomatoes or other vegetables) can be a smart way to save money and add some variety to your meals.

While we wait for the September 30th vote, now is a great time to plan ahead, explore your options, and find creative ways to keep your kitchen stocked without overspending.